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At first, the former US president seemed to take a firm approach regarding Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "severe ramifications" last August in case Vladimir Putin persisted hindering truce negotiations, Trump eventually introduced major restrictions on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted Putin's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his latest detailed peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's plan would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", much of the proposal actually compromise that very autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, implying ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will please the president. Yet, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent desire to weaken it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Land Surrenders

Although keeping in place the already separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been unable to seize in exceeding a decade of conflict, this concession would leave Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Russian forces a open route to Kyiv should he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate additional conflict simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative places no such restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, the plan declares: "Every radical belief system and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the proposal threatens a "immediate joint defense action" in case Russia resume its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics include vague to concerning. The initiative would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the security presence, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished military, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate supplementary accord apparently would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. However different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not